Looking for some Craziness???

Here it is. The time to sell options premium.

Breakout - Digest - Breakout

Trend Violation - Slide - Reverse

Sometimes free Indicators, with a Price tag and special offer would sound cheap.

Remember this two words before you proceed to checkout. "ARE YOU?"

Firstly, I respect the guys and his research. I will pay them for the research and finding, if they are honest enough with their system. But they gave away the research for free. Hahaha!!!

Secondly, I don't like the fact they are selling something that's available for free.

While writing these points, The question Zack Galifianakis ask the other in Hangover 3 crosses my mind

"Why would Mr Chow do that?" ............... Getting back to the topic.

They can easily make money with fancy names and price tag from someone who is seeking help in trading education. Because our psychology prevents us from thinking twice when fancy names are constantly thrown at us, and the amount of profitable trades we see on those "cherry picked" videos.

Also we tend to think, when we pay for "xyz" we are getting something better. ARE YOU?

Remember you are not buying a trading system, with proven statistical edge. You are buying just an Indicator.

Following are few examples.............of those cool looking, awesome indicators.

Please check this out, Is there any difference?

Source Youtube, its a free video posted. Link

You have a squeeze with your "dynamic volatility unit", fantastic, look what I have, squeeze on Keltner Channel.

Hey look the pullback din't get out of the band, Guess what, KC did the same.

I was sharing this video with another trader, "He was intrigued by the fancy name (dynamic volatility unit)" After watching 4 hours of this video. He is a beginner trader.

--

Now, another comparison.

Is there a difference between the two bands? See for yourself.

Source Youtube, its a free video posted. Link

Now, another One.

Is there a difference between the two bands? I am tired, See for yourself.

Price gets out of Acceleration band - So does with Keltner Channel.

Source Youtube, its again a free video with some promotion to get this indicator for $100 offer - No thanks - Link

Now complete the question with ARE YOU "BUYING AN INDICATOR?"

I am not making up anything, All the proof you need is here.

This information is free - But if I wrap this up and add a price tag and cut the price down to half. It will be cheap for anyone to buy it!!!

Save yourself guys!
- 

Custom Momentum Oscillator

Works great on a Strong Trending Stock.

Find the real oversold / overbought condition for bounce.

This is not a holy grail, but filters, there are times this will not work

Don't Take the signals during a Choppy Market.

For Beginners, What is a Strong Trend?

Is the 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89 All Stacked on each other?

Is the Price chopping the EMAs too much?
More Importantly 35, 55, 89 EMA

Link to UCS_Oscillator - https://www.tradingview.com/v/orUtudp2/

-

GL.

QQQ - update

Take a quick look at the QQQs.

Undervalued (Oversold) region has always bounced.

Trend line resistance. This pullback reminds me of pullback (chops) during March. It held 89 EMA, before breaking during April.

The Question is Will this breakout above the trend line or break 89 EMA?

Let the future unfold.

Always position yourself based on RISK. When you position for RISK, you can leave the answer to future price action. If you take positions beyond what you can lose, you will spend more time looking at a chart. Will that change anything?

Market can take a plunge / breakout. No Matter how many hours one looks at a chart, the market does its own thing.

Link to TVI - https://www.tradingview.com/v/BRrxp5vv/

Are you waiting to get in a trade?

Watch this two Episodes.

There are good information in this video. These videos can answer a lot of questions any trader can have. You need to filter what you need, vs whats told. So I will leave that part to you, only because the information I need is different from what others need.

Few Questions you can find answers in the video -

1. If you have what it takes to be a trader?
2. Are there any Personal Circumstances stopping you from trading?
3. Do you realize Losing money is part of the job?
4. Does your Emotion come in the way of Decision making?
5. Having Discipline with failing strategies?
6. Losing your money is bad enough, Failing with others Money is bad?
7. How did they Hedge against a position?

When and What Option Strategies to Implement?

There are may ways to trade options, out right buying a call or put, naked selling call or put, using spreads. Then there are 100 different ways one can setup spreads, to get a credit or debit spread.

The question is do i need to know all spreads?
No, Knowing about all different kind of spreads is theoretical knowledge. But knowing what to use in certain market condition is trading knowledge / practical knowledge.

Anyway ...... Based on my experience, This is how I take trades.

If My Projection is extremely bullish (from certain setups) I buy calls and / or sell Bull put spread or Put credit spread. If extremely Bearish then vice versa.

If Neutral - Iron Condor.

If I know this will be a grinder (mostly I ignore, But will play this if I cant find any other).
           If Bull grind - call debit spread and / or put credit spread
           If Bear grind - put debit spread and / or call credit spread

-
Keep it simple and stupid.

You can also use low risk trade like Butterfly. Also can use a Broken wing butterfly, and manage the position to create a zero loss trade @ expiry. You can create a butterfly in many different ways. Traditional, Inverse, Iron Butterflies etc....

There are many different combinations, creating a net net Zero loss trades @ expiry. Provided your projection is correct. 

Curios if the Standard Deviation Indicator Worked?

Here You GO,

This is one of the High Probability Setup. The Key factor is Option Liquidity.

This indicator is designed with Historical Volatility (HV). The better way to perform this would be with Implied Volatility (IV).

If the IV is relatively lower (IV percentile < 30). Then there would not be much of a difference between choosing HV or IV. If the IV Percentile is > 40. Its better to use IV Std Dev.

Note: Its just my way to trade for premium erosion. If you choose to disagree, by all means go ahead.

As usual - GOOD LUCK

Why not to crowd charts with indicators.

Using RSI or Stochastic, Measures the same (momentum / buying or selling). Like same story different version. Here is a proof.

Its like 1+1 = 2 or 2+3 - 4 = 1. End result is the same.

Still not convinced?

Its the same chart, same indicator. With different lookback periods.

First chart with RSI(3) and Fast Stochastic(8)
Second chart with RSI (3 & 14) and Full Stochastic (14,3)

both stochastic has the % D lines hidden. In my opinion its just a freaking distraction to traders.

Its up to you to use whatever you want.

But knowing how to use them is the key. Not how many you use.

Hope, this helps. 

How does probability help you keep in track......

Notice I had Setup SCTY for both bullish and bearish!!!!

Did I know it? No way.

All I knew was the probability of the setup triggering a long position vs short position was equal. When you have such a trade setup - be prepared.

After all being prepared to tackle the outcome of the market is all you can do. Not predict bottom and top.

as usual Good Luck, and take a good look at the probable scenario.

-
UCS

Fibonnacci Gridding

A auto fibbing tool was always in plan to do.

but now i am developing an indicator which could be potentially be used for Fibbing. The Key is not to have any other indicator. With this indicator you will have all Fib levels from most significant to least significant based on the time frame.

- GL

Using Zig Zag indicator output for the last swing, fib grid the entire chart. On this chart, all the lines are  plotted, which may not be necessary. For example, in the following hourly chart, its clear how the purple and black lines were significant. Similarly, going lower can give you much of a trading advantage with the orange lines. Going higher in time frame, will eliminate the need for orange, purple lines.

Indicator for Larry Conners RSI Pullback Strategy

Hey All,

Here is another indicator, will be available on Tuesday (09-02-2014) at tradingview.com

This indicator is designed to track the Larry Conner's RSI - 2 Trading Strategy.

Indicator works based on the following inputs

1. RSI (2)
2. Moving Average (50 & 200)
3. Historical Volatility
4. ADX (10)
5. 21 SMA Volume

link to his strategy book - Short Term Trading Strategies and 2-Period RSI Pullback Trading Strategy

Good Luck (حظا سعيدا) (buena suerte).

FB - Daily Breakout

GL Trading folks.

Selling Put credit spread, of buying calls on pullback is good. Or buying the stock itself. Make sure to trade with s/l. dont trade anything that you cant afford to lose.

Disclamer

Can someone manage your trading account? (Stop paying for trade alerts)

Today I wanted to show you facts from one website, and their member only trade records. Well, there are few assumptions I made. This website has been consistent in blowing up accounts. These trades were from Jan 01-2014 to Aug 20-2014. (Subscription fee for 1 year is around $500, and has about 120 Subscribers) That is good enough income for any average american. 

Tons and tons of websites for alert service, I am tired with this crap. Alert services target novice traders, because they prey on them. Its the truth and deal with it. Any professional trader will accept this. 

2012 - 2013 I have been on many different website, never took a trade on their recommendation, instead was trading my plan.

I don't blame them, A trader can manage his account well. No Matter how good a trader is, he cannot mange your account because he will not know your risk tolerance in the market, so please stop paying others for trade alerts, pick a strategy, paper trade and stick to it.  You will soon become independent and care less about what others say about your stock.

Entry	Exit	Shares/Options	Entry	Exit	P/L	$10,000.00	Starting Balance
0.5	0	1000	500	0	-500	$9,500.00
1.45	2.73	500	725	1365	640	$10,140.00
1.45	2.35	500	725	1175	450	$10,590.00
2.6	0	1000	2600	0	-2600	$7,990.00
0.45	1.1	1000	450	1100	650	$8,640.00
0.51	0.34	1000	510	340	-170	$8,470.00
1.98	1.2	1000	1980	1200	-780	$7,690.00
2.28	1.95	1000	2280	1950	-330	$7,360.00
1.85	1.2	1000	1850	1200	-650	$6,710.00	Not enough fund for next trade
8.55	4.275	1000	8550	4275	-4275	$2,435.00	This was a no stop position. if you did not get stopped out.
0.85	0	1000	850	0	-850	$1,585.00	Not enough fund for next trade
2.63	1.315	800	2104	1052	-1052	$533.00	Account Blown - Not enough Fund to trade 10 Contracts
2.5	3.3	500	1250	1650	400	$10,933.00	Refunding 10k
2.5	4.57	500	1250	2285	1035	$11,968.00
1.45	0.98	1000	1450	980	-470	$11,498.00
1.64	0.8	1000	1640	800	-840	$10,658.00
2.85	3.84	1000	2850	3840	990	$11,648.00
2.85	3.74	1000	2850	3740	890	$12,538.00
0.75	0.6	1000	750	600	-150	$12,388.00
1.18	0.81	1000	1180	810	-370	$12,018.00
2.14	2.32	1000	2140	2320	180	$12,198.00
0.68	1.5	500	340	750	410	$12,608.00
0.68	2	500	340	1000	660	$13,268.00
4	3	1000	4000	3000	-1000	$12,268.00
3.33	1.05	1000	3330	1050	-2280	$9,988.00
0.34	0.8	1000	340	800	460	$10,448.00
1.32	1.25	1000	1320	1250	-70	$10,378.00
0.81	0.6	1000	810	600	-210	$10,168.00
0.53	0.77	500	265	385	120	$10,288.00
0.53	0.6	500	265	300	35	$10,323.00
0.67	1.88	500	335	940	605	$10,928.00
0.67	1.15	500	335	575	240	$11,168.00
1.1	0.69	1000	1100	690	-410	$10,758.00
1.3	0.88	1000	1300	880	-420	$10,338.00
1	1.34	500	500	670	170	$10,508.00
1	2.44	500	500	1220	720	$11,228.00
0.63	1.02	1000	630	1020	390	$11,618.00
0.83	1.7	1000	830	1700	870	$12,488.00
1.8	2.19	500	900	1095	195	$12,683.00
1.8	2.5	500	900	1250	350	$13,033.00
0.22	1.2	1000	220	1200	980	$14,013.00
1.55	1.05	1000	1550	1050	-500	$13,513.00
5.45	6.6	1000	5450	6600	1150	$14,663.00
0.9	1.78	500	450	890	440	$15,103.00
0.9	1.93	500	450	965	515	$15,618.00
1.03	1.41	500	515	705	190	$15,808.00
1.03	2.18	500	515	1090	575	$16,383.00
1.33	2.35	1000	1330	2350	1020	$17,403.00
2.4	4.85	500	1200	2425	1225	$18,628.00
2.4	4.25	500	1200	2125	925	$19,553.00
0.93	0.99	1000	930	990	60	$19,613.00
0.98	1.02	1000	980	1020	40	$19,653.00
1.14	1.75	500	570	875	305	$19,958.00
1.14	1.08	500	570	540	-30	$19,928.00
2.45	3.3	500	1225	1650	425	$20,353.00
2.45	4.9	500	1225	2450	1225	$21,578.00
2.8	1.15	1000	2800	1150	-1650	$19,928.00
2.31	2.77	1000	2310	2770	460	$20,388.00
1.85	0.5	1000	1850	500	-1350	$19,038.00
0.35	0.5	1000	350	500	150	$19,188.00
0.63	0.91	500	315	455	140	$19,328.00
0.63	1.25	500	315	625	310	$19,638.00
1.6	1.72	1000	1600	1720	120	$19,758.00
2.3	2.95	500	1150	1475	325	$20,083.00
2.3	1.93	500	1150	965	-185	$19,898.00
0.83	1.06	500	415	530	115	$20,013.00
0.83	1.19	500	415	595	180	$20,193.00
0.4	1.03	1000	400	1030	630	$20,823.00
0.6	1.45	1000	600	1450	850	$21,673.00
1.97	0	1000	1970	0	-1970	$19,703.00
0.82	1.2	500	410	600	190	$19,893.00
0.82	1.47	500	410	735	325	$20,218.00
1.68	1.1	1000	1680	1100	-580	$19,638.00
1.15	0.94	1000	1150	940	-210	$19,428.00	8 Months Still not Broke EVEN in this MARKET.

It is very Clear that someone cannot manage your risk. I do have many proof that I have accumulated from 2012 - 2013. Same story different numbers.

Cheap and Liquid ETF

Cheap and Liquid ETFs are another way to take part in the futures market. Therefore, I want to share this quick list of ETFs, for those who don't trade options.

Ticker	Description	Underlying
DBA	PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF	AGRICULTURE
DBC	PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking ETF	COMMODITY
UUP	PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF	DOLLAR INDEX
SDOW	ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30	DOW JONES
EDC	Direxion Daily Emrg Mkts Bull 3X Shares	Emerging Market
EDZ	Direxion Daily Emrg Mkts Bear 3X Shares	Emerging Market
FAZ	Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares	FINANCIAL
EWG	iShares MSCI Germany	GERMANY
IAU	iShares Gold Trust	GOLD
JDST	Direxion Daily Jr Gld Mnrs Bear 3X Shrs	GOLD MINER
DUST	Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shrs	GOLD MINER
JNUG	Direxion Daily Jr Gld Mnrs Bull 3X Shrs	GOLD MINER
TBF	ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury	INCOME FUND
PIN	PowerShares India ETF	INDIA
EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan	JAPAN
DGAZ	VelocityShares 3x Inv Natural Gas ETN	NATURAL GAS
UGAZ	VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN	NATURAL GAS
PSQ	ProShares Short QQQ	QQQ
QID	ProShares UltraShort QQQ	QQQ
SQQQ	ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ	QQQ
RWM	ProShares Short Russell2000	RUSSELL 2000
RSX	Market Vectors Russia ETF	RUSSIA
SLV	iShares Silver Trust	SILVER
TZA	Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares	SMALL CAP
SPXS	Direxion Daily S&P500 Bear 3X Shares	SPX
SDS	ProShares UltraShort S&P500	SPX
TVIX	VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN	VIX

And yes I know, the Crude Oil, Australia, Europe and China ETFs are missing. The Goal is to pick the ETFs that are cheap to trade. 

Add them to have a list of ETFs complete for all the markets. I usually trade the Stocks (SPX, QQQ, IWM, DIA), Commodity (GLD, SLV), Bonds (TBT) based ETFs. Occasionally trade the rest, for example, very recent Brazil and India run up etc. 

Good Luck