Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Looking for some Craziness???

Here it is. The time to sell options premium.

Breakout - Digest - Breakout

Trend Violation - Slide - Reverse


Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Sometimes free Indicators, with a Price tag and special offer would sound cheap.

Remember this two words before you proceed to checkout. "ARE YOU?"

Firstly, I respect the guys and his research. I will pay them for the research and finding, if they are honest enough with their system. But they gave away the research for free. Hahaha!!!

Secondly, I don't like the fact they are selling something that's available for free.

While writing these points, The question Zack Galifianakis ask the other in Hangover 3 crosses my mind

"Why would Mr Chow do that?" ............... Getting back to the topic.

They can easily make money with fancy names and price tag from someone who is seeking help in trading education. Because our psychology prevents us from thinking twice when fancy names are constantly thrown at us, and the amount of profitable trades we see on those "cherry picked" videos.

Also we tend to think, when we pay for "xyz" we are getting something better. ARE YOU?

Remember you are not buying a trading system, with proven statistical edge. You are buying just an Indicator.

Following are few examples.............of those cool looking, awesome indicators.

Please check this out, Is there any difference?

Source Youtube, its a free video posted. Link

You have a squeeze with your "dynamic volatility unit", fantastic, look what I have, squeeze on Keltner Channel.

Hey look the pullback din't get out of the band, Guess what, KC did the same.

I was sharing this video with another trader, "He was intrigued by the fancy name (dynamic volatility unit)" After watching 4 hours of this video. He is a beginner trader.

--

Now, another comparison.

Is there a difference between the two bands? See for yourself.

Source Youtube, its a free video posted. Link

Now, another One.

Is there a difference between the two bands? I am tired, See for yourself.

Price gets out of Acceleration band - So does with Keltner Channel.

Source Youtube, its again a free video with some promotion to get this indicator for $100 offer - No thanks - Link

Now complete the question with ARE YOU "BUYING AN INDICATOR?"

I am not making up anything, All the proof you need is here.

This information is free - But if I wrap this up and add a price tag and cut the price down to half. It will be cheap for anyone to buy it!!!

Save yourself guys!

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Custom Momentum Oscillator


Works great on a Strong Trending Stock.

Find the real oversold / overbought condition for bounce.


This is not a holy grail, but filters, there are times this will not work


Don't Take the signals during a Choppy Market.

For Beginners, What is a Strong Trend?

Is the 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89 All Stacked on each other?

Is the Price chopping the EMAs too much?
More Importantly 35, 55, 89 EMA

Link to UCS_Oscillator - https://www.tradingview.com/v/orUtudp2/

-

GL.

QQQ - update

Take a quick look at the QQQs.

Undervalued (Oversold) region has always bounced.

Trend line resistance. This pullback reminds me of pullback (chops) during March. It held 89 EMA, before breaking during April.

The Question is Will this breakout above the trend line or break 89 EMA?

Let the future unfold.


Always position yourself based on RISK. When you position for RISK, you can leave the answer to future price action. If you take positions beyond what you can lose, you will spend more time looking at a chart. Will that change anything?

Market can take a plunge / breakout. No Matter how many hours one looks at a chart, the market does its own thing.

Link to TVI - https://www.tradingview.com/v/BRrxp5vv/

Saturday, October 4, 2014

Are you waiting to get in a trade?



Watch this two Episodes.






There are good information in this video. These videos can answer a lot of questions any trader can have. You need to filter what you need, vs whats told. So I will leave that part to you, only because the information I need is different from what others need.

Few Questions you can find answers in the video -

1. If you have what it takes to be a trader?
2. Are there any Personal Circumstances stopping you from trading?
3. Do you realize Losing money is part of the job?
4. Does your Emotion come in the way of Decision making?
5. Having Discipline with failing strategies?
6. Losing your money is bad enough, Failing with others Money is bad?
7. How did they Hedge against a position?

Sunday, September 14, 2014

When and What Option Strategies to Implement?

There are may ways to trade options, out right buying a call or put, naked selling call or put, using spreads. Then there are 100 different ways one can setup spreads, to get a credit or debit spread.

The question is do i need to know all spreads?
No, Knowing about all different kind of spreads is theoretical knowledge. But knowing what to use in certain market condition is trading knowledge / practical knowledge.

Anyway ...... Based on my experience, This is how I take trades.


If My Projection is extremely bullish (from certain setups) I buy calls and / or sell Bull put spread or Put credit spread. If extremely Bearish then vice versa.

If Neutral - Iron Condor.

If I know this will be a grinder (mostly I ignore, But will play this if I cant find any other).
           If Bull grind - call debit spread and / or put credit spread
           If Bear grind - put debit spread and / or call credit spread

-
Keep it simple and stupid.

You can also use low risk trade like Butterfly. Also can use a Broken wing butterfly, and manage the position to create a zero loss trade @ expiry. You can create a butterfly in many different ways. Traditional, Inverse, Iron Butterflies etc....

There are many different combinations, creating a net net Zero loss trades @ expiry. Provided your projection is correct. 

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Curios if the Standard Deviation Indicator Worked?

Here You GO,



This is one of the High Probability Setup. The Key factor is Option Liquidity.

This indicator is designed with Historical Volatility (HV). The better way to perform this would be with Implied Volatility (IV).

If the IV is relatively lower (IV percentile < 30). Then there would not be much of a difference between choosing HV or IV. If the IV Percentile is > 40. Its better to use IV Std Dev.

Note: Its just my way to trade for premium erosion. If you choose to disagree, by all means go ahead.

As usual - GOOD LUCK


Thursday, September 4, 2014

Why not to crowd charts with indicators.

Using RSI or Stochastic, Measures the same (momentum / buying or selling). Like same story different version. Here is a proof.


Its like 1+1 = 2 or 2+3 - 4 = 1. End result is the same.

Still not convinced?


Its the same chart, same indicator. With different lookback periods.

First chart with RSI(3) and Fast Stochastic(8)
Second chart with RSI (3 & 14) and Full Stochastic (14,3)

both stochastic has the % D lines hidden. In my opinion its just a freaking distraction to traders.

Its up to you to use whatever you want.

But knowing how to use them is the key. Not how many you use.

Hope, this helps. 

How does probability help you keep in track......


Notice I had Setup SCTY for both bullish and bearish!!!!

Did I know it? No way.

All I knew was the probability of the setup triggering a long position vs short position was equal. When you have such a trade setup - be prepared.

After all being prepared to tackle the outcome of the market is all you can do. Not predict bottom and top.

as usual Good Luck, and take a good look at the probable scenario.

-
UCS

Sunday, August 31, 2014

Fibonnacci Gridding

A auto fibbing tool was always in plan to do.

but now i am developing an indicator which could be potentially be used for Fibbing. The Key is not to have any other indicator. With this indicator you will have all Fib levels from most significant to least significant based on the time frame.

- GL


Using Zig Zag indicator output for the last swing, fib grid the entire chart. On this chart, all the lines are  plotted, which may not be necessary. For example, in the following hourly chart, its clear how the purple and black lines were significant. Similarly, going lower can give you much of a trading advantage with the orange lines. Going higher in time frame, will eliminate the need for orange, purple lines.


Indicator for Larry Conners RSI Pullback Strategy

Hey All,

Here is another indicator, will be available on Tuesday (09-02-2014) at tradingview.com

This indicator is designed to track the Larry Conner's RSI - 2 Trading Strategy.

Indicator works based on the following inputs

1. RSI (2)
2. Moving Average (50 & 200)
3. Historical Volatility
4. ADX (10)
5. 21 SMA Volume

link to his strategy book - Short Term Trading Strategies and 2-Period RSI Pullback Trading Strategy

Good Luck (حظا سعيدا) (buena suerte).

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

FB - Daily Breakout




GL Trading folks.

Selling Put credit spread, of buying calls on pullback is good. Or buying the stock itself. Make sure to trade with s/l. dont trade anything that you cant afford to lose.

Disclamer

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Can someone manage your trading account? (Stop paying for trade alerts)

Today I wanted to show you facts from one website, and their member only trade records. Well, there are few assumptions I made. This website has been consistent in blowing up accounts. These trades were from Jan 01-2014 to Aug 20-2014. (Subscription fee for 1 year is around $500, and has about 120 Subscribers) That is good enough income for any average american. 

Tons and tons of websites for alert service, I am tired with this crap. Alert services target novice traders, because they prey on them. Its the truth and deal with it. Any professional trader will accept this. 

2012 - 2013 I have been on many different website, never took a trade on their recommendation, instead was trading my plan.

I don't blame them, A trader can manage his account well. No Matter how good a trader is, he cannot mange your account because he will not know your risk tolerance in the market, so please stop paying others for trade alerts, pick a strategy, paper trade and stick to it.  You will soon become independent and care less about what others say about your stock.


Entry Exit Shares/Options Entry Exit P/L $10,000.00 Starting Balance
0.5 0 1000 500 0 -500 $9,500.00
1.45 2.73 500 725 1365 640 $10,140.00
1.45 2.35 500 725 1175 450 $10,590.00
2.6 0 1000 2600 0 -2600 $7,990.00
0.45 1.1 1000 450 1100 650 $8,640.00
0.51 0.34 1000 510 340 -170 $8,470.00
1.98 1.2 1000 1980 1200 -780 $7,690.00
2.28 1.95 1000 2280 1950 -330 $7,360.00
1.85 1.2 1000 1850 1200 -650 $6,710.00
Not enough fund for next trade

8.55 4.275 1000 8550 4275 -4275 $2,435.00 This was a no stop position. if you did not get stopped out.
0.85 0 1000 850 0 -850 $1,585.00 Not enough fund for next trade

2.63 1.315 800 2104 1052 -1052 $533.00 Account Blown - Not enough Fund to trade 10 Contracts



2.5 3.3 500 1250 1650 400 $10,933.00 Refunding 10k

2.5 4.57 500 1250 2285 1035 $11,968.00
1.45 0.98 1000 1450 980 -470 $11,498.00
1.64 0.8 1000 1640 800 -840 $10,658.00
2.85 3.84 1000 2850 3840 990 $11,648.00
2.85 3.74 1000 2850 3740 890 $12,538.00
0.75 0.6 1000 750 600 -150 $12,388.00
1.18 0.81 1000 1180 810 -370 $12,018.00
2.14 2.32 1000 2140 2320 180 $12,198.00
0.68 1.5 500 340 750 410 $12,608.00
0.68 2 500 340 1000 660 $13,268.00
4 3 1000 4000 3000 -1000 $12,268.00
3.33 1.05 1000 3330 1050 -2280 $9,988.00
0.34 0.8 1000 340 800 460 $10,448.00
1.32 1.25 1000 1320 1250 -70 $10,378.00
0.81 0.6 1000 810 600 -210 $10,168.00
0.53 0.77 500 265 385 120 $10,288.00
0.53 0.6 500 265 300 35 $10,323.00
0.67 1.88 500 335 940 605 $10,928.00
0.67 1.15 500 335 575 240 $11,168.00
1.1 0.69 1000 1100 690 -410 $10,758.00
1.3 0.88 1000 1300 880 -420 $10,338.00
1 1.34 500 500 670 170 $10,508.00
1 2.44 500 500 1220 720 $11,228.00
0.63 1.02 1000 630 1020 390 $11,618.00
0.83 1.7 1000 830 1700 870 $12,488.00
1.8 2.19 500 900 1095 195 $12,683.00
1.8 2.5 500 900 1250 350 $13,033.00
0.22 1.2 1000 220 1200 980 $14,013.00
1.55 1.05 1000 1550 1050 -500 $13,513.00
5.45 6.6 1000 5450 6600 1150 $14,663.00
0.9 1.78 500 450 890 440 $15,103.00
0.9 1.93 500 450 965 515 $15,618.00
1.03 1.41 500 515 705 190 $15,808.00
1.03 2.18 500 515 1090 575 $16,383.00
1.33 2.35 1000 1330 2350 1020 $17,403.00
2.4 4.85 500 1200 2425 1225 $18,628.00
2.4 4.25 500 1200 2125 925 $19,553.00
0.93 0.99 1000 930 990 60 $19,613.00
0.98 1.02 1000 980 1020 40 $19,653.00
1.14 1.75 500 570 875 305 $19,958.00
1.14 1.08 500 570 540 -30 $19,928.00
2.45 3.3 500 1225 1650 425 $20,353.00
2.45 4.9 500 1225 2450 1225 $21,578.00
2.8 1.15 1000 2800 1150 -1650 $19,928.00
2.31 2.77 1000 2310 2770 460 $20,388.00
1.85 0.5 1000 1850 500 -1350 $19,038.00
0.35 0.5 1000 350 500 150 $19,188.00
0.63 0.91 500 315 455 140 $19,328.00
0.63 1.25 500 315 625 310 $19,638.00
1.6 1.72 1000 1600 1720 120 $19,758.00
2.3 2.95 500 1150 1475 325 $20,083.00
2.3 1.93 500 1150 965 -185 $19,898.00
0.83 1.06 500 415 530 115 $20,013.00
0.83 1.19 500 415 595 180 $20,193.00
0.4 1.03 1000 400 1030 630 $20,823.00
0.6 1.45 1000 600 1450 850 $21,673.00
1.97 0 1000 1970 0 -1970 $19,703.00
0.82 1.2 500 410 600 190 $19,893.00
0.82 1.47 500 410 735 325 $20,218.00
1.68 1.1 1000 1680 1100 -580 $19,638.00
1.15 0.94 1000 1150 940 -210 $19,428.00 8 Months Still not Broke EVEN in this MARKET. 
It is very Clear that someone cannot manage your risk. I do have many proof that I have accumulated from 2012 - 2013. Same story different numbers.

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Cheap and Liquid ETF

Cheap and Liquid ETFs are another way to take part in the futures market. Therefore, I want to share this quick list of ETFs, for those who don't trade options.

Ticker
Description
Underlying
DBA
PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF
AGRICULTURE
DBC
PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking ETF
COMMODITY
UUP
PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF
DOLLAR INDEX
SDOW
ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30
DOW JONES
EDC
Direxion Daily Emrg Mkts Bull 3X Shares
Emerging Market
EDZ
Direxion Daily Emrg Mkts Bear 3X Shares
Emerging Market
FAZ
Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares
FINANCIAL
EWG
iShares MSCI Germany
GERMANY
IAU
iShares Gold Trust
GOLD
JDST
Direxion Daily Jr Gld Mnrs Bear 3X Shrs
GOLD MINER
DUST
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shrs
GOLD MINER
JNUG
Direxion Daily Jr Gld Mnrs Bull 3X Shrs
GOLD MINER
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury
INCOME FUND
PIN
PowerShares India ETF
INDIA
EWJ
iShares MSCI Japan
JAPAN
DGAZ
VelocityShares 3x Inv Natural Gas ETN
NATURAL GAS
UGAZ
VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN
NATURAL GAS
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
QQQ
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
QQQ
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
QQQ
RWM
ProShares Short Russell2000
RUSSELL 2000
RSX
Market Vectors Russia ETF
RUSSIA
SLV
iShares Silver Trust
SILVER
TZA
Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares
SMALL CAP
SPXS
Direxion Daily S&P500 Bear 3X Shares
SPX
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
SPX
TVIX
VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN
VIX

And yes I know, the Crude Oil, Australia, Europe and China ETFs are missing. The Goal is to pick the ETFs that are cheap to trade. 

Add them to have a list of ETFs complete for all the markets. I usually trade the Stocks (SPX, QQQ, IWM, DIA), Commodity (GLD, SLV), Bonds (TBT) based ETFs. Occasionally trade the rest, for example, very recent Brazil and India run up etc. 

Good Luck

Friday, August 15, 2014

Indicator Code for BB-%BB

For those who wants the code (pine script) for the indicator mentioned in the previous post BB-%BB

Follow this link. http://pastebin.com/WqCsMhhv

Thanks to Chris Moody from tradingview for developing this indicator and making it sophisticated enough to spot the overbought / oversold levels.

Please use the Squeeze along with this. Chris Moody has already done some work with the squeeze, he is a moderator from tradingview and is ready to help (https://www.tradingview.com/u/ChrisMoody/).

He also has built various indicators. Wouldn't hurt to learn a few of his strategy. Good Luck folks.